674
AXNT20 KNHC 211658
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 21 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 24W from 23N southward, moving west around 10 kt. A weak 1010 mb low is along the wave axis near 18N24W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-11N east of 34W.
A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean over the Lesser Antilles near 61W from 22N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No substantial deep convection is associated with this tropical wave.
A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea near 86W from 21N southward to Central America, moving west at 20 to 25 kt. No substantial deep convection is associated with this tropical wave.
A tropical wave has moved into the Bay of Campeche near 94W from 21N southward, moving west at around 20 kt. No substantial deep convection is associated with this tropical wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the Senegal-Gambia coast at 13N17W to near 12N45W. The ITCZ then extends from 12N45W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-11N east of 34W.
The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N82W to a weak 1009 mb low along the Colombian coast near 10N76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak cold front is draped across the N Gulf from the W coast of Florida near 28N83W to 28N93W. From there, the front becomes stationary northwestward to the Upper Texas coast near 30N94W. Isolated moderate convection is noted between the cold front and a pre-frontal trough from 26N82W to 25N89W as well as from 25N-29N between 94W-96W. Winds - away from the isolated convection - are light to gentle with 1-2 ft seas across the whole Gulf.
For the forecast, the front will linger over the northern Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near this boundary, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected into this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between ridging from the Bermuda-Azores High north of the Greater Antilles to the 1009 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean. Elsewhere, the trades are only gentle to moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NW and E Caribbean, while seas are 6-8 ft over the central and SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 11N in the SW Caribbean in association with the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will continue over the south-central basin today as a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia persists. Conditions will begin to improve by Thu morning as the pressure gradient weakens.Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over central and eastern portions of the basin through this weekend. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean through the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High extends from the Bahamas east-northeastward to beyond 31N60W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressures over the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough is forcing moderate to fresh trades across the Atlantic forecast waters. Funneling of the winds through the Canary Islands is causing NE winds up to strong breeze conditions. Seas are 5-8 ft equatorward of the ridging. In the NW portion of our waters, a weak cold front extends from 31N77W southwestward to 29N81W in NE Florida. SW winds ahead of the front are moderate to fresh with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 27N between 71W-78W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front moving off the NE Florida coast this morning will stall today into tonight and linger over the area through the rest of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will occur near this boundary, potentially producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through this weekend.
$$Landsea
